The Challenges of Making Data-Oriented Decisions

Federal and state systems sometimes alter laws or sentences in response to particular cases as a result of public outcry, such as with Megan’s Law (laws that make it a state and federal requirement to make publicly available information about sex offenders). When more laws are written, there may be unintended consequences. For example, as more offenders are forced onto a sex offender registry, the recidivism rate tends to go up because more individuals are being tracked.

When unable to find work or underemployed, with residential options severely compromised, research indicates that the registry hampers returning citizens from effectively reintegrating into their communities. These individuals become increasingly likely to commit subsistence crimes upon release and are then labeled recidivists. Data show that most persons on these registries are not at high risk of reoffending, contrary to the public’s beliefs.

Sometimes in response to the well-publicized narrative about particular cases, public opinion motivates legislators to act while available behavioral data are ignored in implementing laws. In addition to the previous example, Scared Straight programs (alternatives to traditional punishment whereby usually young offenders are exposed to conditions of confinement in an effort to scare them straight) continue although research has documented that participants become more likely to offend after this programming. There is still a widespread belief that the death penalty is a deterrent, even though research to date has indicated it is used so infrequently and for such specific crimes that this belief is not empirically supported.

Behavioral theory is being utilized successfully in designing and implementing cognitive behavioral programs for incarcerated offenders, although availability and type of programming are highly dependent on the resources and philosophical underpinnings of a particular system. Most states offer some version of cognitive behavioral programming designed to change criminogenic thinking and develop adaptive skills. These programs promote effective choice making, problem-solving, emotional regulation, and stress management. More correctional systems in the United States are also considering use of incentives (i.e., rewards for good behavior) such as good time (i.e., early release from incarceration), residence in a preferred pod, and additional recreation hours.

There is a small but growing body of research on the effects of programming inside correctional settings, which has demonstrated that behavioral treatment produces the strongest effect in decreasing misconduct and is correlated with larger reductions in recidivism later.

One of the challenges in measuring the impact of the application of behavior theory to crime is that function of behavior has traditionally been assessed based on individual behavior, whereas crime data are most often studied at the aggregate level of cities, states, and countries. Data are also difficult to collect, analyze, and apply given that many crimes are not reported to police, and punishments vary widely. Behavior theory would predict that when the incentives of better education, decent paying jobs, community mental health services, and safe housing are available, it would stand to reason that crime is less reinforcing as an option.

Denise Malone
Further Readings: Dugan, L., LaFree, G., & Piquero, A. R. (2005). Testing a rational choice model of airline hijackings. Criminology, 43, 1031-1065. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2005.00032.x

French, S., & Gendreau, P. (2006). Reducing prison misconducts: What works! Criminal Justice and Behavior, 33, 185-218.
Halpern, D. (2015). Inside the nudge unit. London, UK: Penguin Random House.

Levitt, S. (2001). Deterrence. In J. Q. Wilson & J. Petersilia (Eds.), Crime: Public policy for crime control (pp. 435-450). Oakland, CA: ICS Press.

Nagin, D. S. (2007). Moving choice to center stage in criminological research. Criminology, 45, 259-272. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.11117j.1745-9125 .2007.00078.x

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2009). Data-driven approaches to crime and traffic safety [PDF]. (Earl Hardy, author) Retrieved from https:// one.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Traffic%20Injury%20 Control/.../811186.pdf