Views of Population Growth. Population Policy

One view of the relationship between population growth and resource availability emphasizes resources as a factor limiting population. This view was developed by Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), an English economist. Malthus argued that populations tend to increase relative to increases in supplies of available resources.

Improvements in technology and productivity can increase standards of living in the short run, but they also encourage additional population growth. The long-run effect, according to the Malthusian thesis, will be a decline in the standards of living because more people must share a finite resource base.

An alternative view suggests that population increases tend to expand resource bases. This perspective suggests that increased populations permit further division of labor and other increases in the efficiency of production. Per-capita resources increase faster than the rate of population growth. According to the cornucopian thesis, as this view has been called, population growth is desirable rather than detrimental.

This position was adopted in China by Mao Zedong (1890-1976). the Chinese Communist leader who rejected proposals to control China's rapid population growth with the saying "Even' stomach is attached to two hands." (China's controversial efforts to promote population control began inearnest only after Mao's death.)

A second challenge to the Malthusian thesis was developed by Ester Boserup (b. 1918). Whereas Marx suggested that population growth encourages increases in production. Boserup postulated that production increases in preindustrial societies occurred in response to population growth. Boserup pointed out that people in hunting and gathering cultures devote relatively little time to finding and preparing food. Only when populations begin to increase is more effort required to expand available food resources. Hence, population growth requires additional labor inputs, stimulating technological innovation that results in increased production and a more stable food supply.

Boserup, like the cornucopians. questioned Malthus's assumption that population growth would lead inevitably to starvation and poverty was false. Certainly, evidence that standards of living have increased worldwide despite population growth is consistent with this view.

Population Policy. Malthusian views imply that excessive population growth is undesirable: hence, supporters of "Malthus's arguments have often argued that policy measures intended to retard further population growth should be enacted. The current population policy of China, in which couples are strongly encouraged to limit families to one child, typifies the Malthusian approach to population policy. On the other hand, those who advocate a Marxist view or who support Boserup's thesis see no need for population-control policy. In fact, some governments, such as that of the former Soviet Union, rewarded mothers who bore large numbers of children.

Those societies that have attempted to control population growth have done so by promoting policies intended to reduce birth rates. In order to lower birth rates, some countries have adopted policies that require the voluntary cooperation and participation of residents. Individuals who limit family size or agree to undergo voluntary sterilization procedures are given financial incentives or other rewards.

Compulsory approaches to population-growth control have been adopted in other countries. Compulsory policies are much more controversial and are subject to considerable popular opposition. China's program, which combined voluntary and compulsory policies, was among the most publicized and controversial population policies in recent history.

By the late 1970s, China's population had exceeded one billion. Concerned that the high birth rate would result in continued rapid population growth, Chinese government officials adopted a variety of policies intended to limit each couple to a single child. Only children were afforded preferential treatment in education, housing, and employment. Parents with only one child were rewarded with salary bonuses, while those with two or more forfeited 10 percent of their salaries. Couples who under- went sterilization following the birth of a child were eligible for additional financial rewards. In some areas, compulsory population control was reported, with women forced to undergo abortions or sterilizations in order to prevent further births.

The one-child policy has had other profound effects on Chinese society. A preference for sons over daughters is a value of Chinese culture. Sons can carry on the family name and work to support elderly parents, whereas daughters are married off into other families. Cases of female infanticide and abortion of female fetuses, presumably as a consequence of the one-child policy, have been documented.

Looking to the future, stringent application of the one-child policy would result in the radical restructuring of social relations within China, whose culture values the role of the extended family to a much greater degree than does Western culture. After a few generations, children would have no sisters, brothers, aunts, uncles, or cousins.

Moreover, strict enforcement would affect the dependency ratio within China dramatically. Today, only one of every twenty Chinese is over the age of sixty-five. By 2030 it has been projected that up to one-quarter of the Chinese population will be over sixty-five. The high concentration of elderly would require a massive investment in social security and medical programs.

How successful has Chinese policy been in lowering China's birth rate? Although the one-child goal was maintained throughout the 1980s, it was not always enforced strictly. In 1987, only half of China's newborn babies were born to first-time mothers, and 20 percent were third or later births. Third or later births accounted for up to one-third of the births reported in some of the less developed interior provinces of China, where resistance to the government's population policies was strongest. By the late 1980s, resistance to the one-child policy was widespread in rural China, and many local officials ignored the national government's goals.